皇冠开户(www.huangguan.us)是皇冠体育官方信用网线上直营平台。皇冠体育开放信用网和现金网代理申请、信用网和现金网会员注册、线上充值线上投注、线上提现、皇冠官方APP下载等业务。皇冠体育提供皇冠官网管理端登录线路、皇冠官网会员端登录线路,皇冠官网手机网址、皇冠官网最新网址导航等服务。

首页社会正文

Telegram分享群组:Crossing red lines to nuclear war

admin2022-10-0111

皇冠足球appwww.hg108.vip)是一个开放皇冠即时比分、代理最新登录线路、会员最新登录线路、皇冠代理APP下载、皇冠会员APP下载、皇冠线路APP下载、皇冠电脑版下载、皇冠手机版下载的皇冠新现金网平台。皇冠官网平台上登录线路最新、新2皇冠网址更新最快,皇冠体育APP开放皇冠会员注册、皇冠代理开户等业务。

Biden’s “Build Back Better” seeks to get back to a semblance of unipolar position, but having crossed Russia’s red line over Ukraine, war has broken out, but it is contained because it is a proxy war where only the Ukrainians are dying, whilst Nato provides the arms.

NOW that the pomp and glory of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is over, and China has held military exercises surrounding Taiwan, what has been achieved other than further worsening of US-China relations?

The crumbling of the current world order is like an earthquake. Initially everything looked fine, then cracks and tremors begin to appear, and events accelerate until the actual earthquake occurs with massive devastation.

The difference between earthquakes and war is that the latter is human-induced and should in theory be avoidable.

The Thucydides Trap is less about whether Great Powers will fight and more about whether it is avoidable. History has rewarded heroes when they win wars, but has seldom praised statesmen who have avoided wars.

History will debate whether the Ukraine war was avoidable. So far, it is a non-nuclear war because Russia warned the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) not to provoke a nuclear situation.

Nato at least understands that the Cold War, fought between 1946-1991, did avoid nuclear war.

,

Telegram分享群组www.tel8.vip)是一个Telegram群组分享平台。Telegram分享群组包括Telegram分享群组、Telegram群组索引、Telegram群组导航、新加坡Telegram群组、Telegram中文群组、Telegram群组(其他)、Telegram 美国 群组、Telegram群组爬虫、电报群 科学上网、小飞机 怎么 加 群、tg群等内容。Telegram分享群组为广大电报用户提供各种电报群组/电报频道/电报机器人导航服务。

,

Both sides understood that nuclear war was “MAD” (mutually assured destruction). There were lots of proxy wars, such as the Korean war, where the Soviets pushed China to do the fighting, or Afghanistan, where the United States financed Islamist forces to wear down the Soviet forces.

The Cuban missile crisis was defused when the Russians agreed to remove missiles from Cuba, provided the Americans removed missiles from Turkiye. Both sides decided to back down from each other’s “red lines”, the crossing of which would escalate beyond either side’s control.

The American economist who had the most influence on shaping understanding of nuclear options was Thomas C Schelling (1931-2016). His Nobel laureate lecture “An Astonishing Sixty Years: The Legacy of Hiroshima” reminds us how lucky and rational we were so far in avoiding nuclear escalation.

Schelling’s great attribute was to apply intellectual rigour and common sense to very uncomfortable questions. He thought through the unthinkable. A leading game theorist, he understood that all human decisions are interdependent, contingent upon someone else’s behaviour, the most common being “tit for tat”.

But common sense at the individual level does not always work at the global level. Married couples who want a divorce can appeal to a court for independent judgement.

Great Powers cannot appeal to any higher court, not even the United Nations, because they have the veto over any ruling.

Thus the only global rule is that Great Powers must reach an understanding with each other and not cross each other’s red lines, beyond which they will clash.

网友评论

1条评论
  • 2022-10-01 00:07:29

    阿博特的通讯主管米纳(Mark Miner)17日揭晓声明称:“州长今天的新冠病毒检测呈阳性。州长天天都在举行检测,今天是首个阳性检测效果。州长正在与他的事情职员、机构认真人和政府官员不停相同,以确保州政府继续顺遂和有用地运作。州长将在官邸内举行隔离,并继续天天举行测试。” 爽快,喜欢不拖的情节

热门标签