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约搏以太坊:Banks revising up net interest margin guidance

admin2022-09-176

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PETALING JAYA: Banking sector earnings for the second quarter (2Q) of 2022 came in within-to-slightly-ahead of analysts’ expectations.

Moving forward, Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) Research expects cumulative net profit for local banks to rebound 18% in 2023, despite maintaining elevated credit cost assumptions in anticipation of slower economic growth.

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Moreover, it said valuations are still sufficiently decent to warrant a positive stance on the sector, supported by a rising return on equity and comfortable dividend yields.

“2Q22 was a slightly better season for banks – loans growth gathered momentum, net interest margins (NIMs) advanced five basis points (bps) quarter-on-quarter following the overnight policy rate (OPR) hike in May 2022, non-interest income rose 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) on aggregate despite higher bond yields during the period, while credit costs were lower y-o-y,” said the research firm in a 2Q22 results roundup on the banking sector.

The only setback, it noted, was that most banks saw negative JAWS as overheads had started to normalise, while Cukai Makmur continued to dampen earnings.

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It has added preemptive provisions totaling approximately RM80bil for the banks under its coverage, which serve as buffers against any potential asset quality deterioration due to slower economic growth next year, as well as earnings support if the provisions are gradually written back.

“Hypothetically, assuming a default rate of 20% and a loss given default rate of 30% on Repayment Assistance or RA loans, pre-emptive provision levels would be sufficient to cover 101% to 325% of potential defaults,” it added.

Maybank IB Research said it has conservatively kept its credit cost assumptions elevated at 38 and 34 bps in 2022 (FY22) and 2023, versus a pre-Covid average of 28 bps from FY17 to FY19.

Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research sees 2021 to 23 sector profit growing at a two-year compound annual growth rate of 9.7%.

“In our opinion, the sector’s risk-reward profile continues to skew favourably to the upside – the cocktail of robust profit growth and undemanding valuations will be the impetus driving performance,” HLIB Research said in its banking sector report.

Among key trends it noted was that loan growth had gathered traction to 6.3% (y-o-y) as compared to 1Q22’s 5.3%. Meanwhile, deposit growth remained stable at 5.5% year on year.

The research firm said based on these two categories, the top three fastest growing banks were Affin Bank Bhd, BIMB Holdings Bhd and Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank).

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